Obama's Re-election Chances

Obama’s re-election chances are uncertain since he is in the race with another competitive presidential candidate. According to statistician Nate Silver, Obama’s chances of re-election appear to promise if Rick Perry or Herman Cain wins the seat nomination of the Republican, as opposed to standing for the presidency against Mitt Romney.

Silver’s reputation goes beyond this article as mentioned in the Monday morning New York Times (November 7, 2011); he directs the statistics on Blog of the New York Times, (Five thirty Eight). Evidently, he named the winner for the presidency in 49 States basing on Indiana only which Obama ended up winning by nine percent in 2008. He went ahead and made his predictions of the excellent candidate to the Senate of that year. In a recent cover story in The New York Times Magazine, Silver disclosed his view that Obama's popularity may not be strong now, and he ascertained that Obama was now a “slight underdog” for reelection. Silver went ahead and propose a solution to the above problem. He quoted that if the Republican made more job reports and offered a poor choice of opponents then Obama would soon become the people’s favorite again.

In the past, presidents had higher chance of winning when they went against candidates who were extreme, and as Silver observed, in Obama’s case, it would be better for him to go for the seat against Perry and Cain than for Romney. The election would hinge on the economy’s direction if the matchup became Obama versus Romney. However, the voters would look the other way and vote for the right candidate if the economy showed signs of improvement. It is a fact that none of the economists expects a radical change in the economy before the elections. Obama should focus on improving the economic situation, as Silver pointed out: “Voters may think about the economy as falling into three basic categories - Good, Bad or Getting Better.” Statistics show that the Republicans are not as popular with the voters as Obama is because Congressional approval ratings are lower that Obama’s mid-40’s approval ratings and this consequently minimizes their candidate’s chance for reelection.

Silver raised a question about how the Occupy Wall Street movement would impact the election. The most crucial aspect in Obama versus Romney run for the presidency would be Obama striving hard to improve the economy. Obama’s popularity vote for winning was 60 percent, and it would go down to 40percent and 17 percent if his popularity rating receded and in case it stalled respectively.

This article has pinpointed the areas that are of great importance for improving Obama’s popularity ratings for reelection. Perry and Cain are less of a threat to Obama, as their popularity is lower than Obama’s. The Republican’s only look at the short-term interests while Obama solely focuses on the major aspects of the national interests, such as economy and security.

The probable audiences for this article are the voters for the Republican party as well as those who support the Democratic party. The drop in approval ratings for Obama preceding his election this year acted as a revelation to the activists of his campaign. They realize that campaign time is running out, and they need to put more strategies into practice to improve his image in th eeys of the nation. The statistical data that Silver has pointed out shows that Obama needs to be up to 48 or 50 percent in approval ratings in order to be reelected. In relation to this article Obama and his campaign activists need to concentrate on the analysis of public views, attitude and behavior relating to significant issues that affect the nation in the first place such as religion, economy, social well-being and consumer behavior. Some voters are distrustful of what is happening in Congress and the government. Hence, this is an advantage to the Republicans, since such weakness of the opposition improves their popularity ratings.

Through this article, the audience can see that Silver has highlighted areas that need focus and improvement. For example, for Obama to improve his standing, his regime needs to strike a balance between the delegate model and the trustee model. The elected officials need to use unique and effective criteria in making independent decisions. These decisions should entirely base on the opinions and feelings of Americans about the economy. Using the voice of the people in addressing these issues will improve Obama’s mid-40’s approval ratings and better his chances of reelection. The people of America will consider him a worthy candidate for the seat because of his awareness and sensitivity to the issues affecting the common man. His desire for a livable America and a better tomorrow for its citizens would be highly noted. Republican also benefit from this article because they can learn the weaknesses of their opposition. Republican’s now have a fifty-fifty chance in standing for the presidency. Improving and strengthening their popularity in areas like Ohio, Florida and with the African-American population would mean a landslide change in their ratings and an upper hand in this year’s election.

In conclusion, this article is useful for the research on the chances of Obama’s reelection because it highlighted the loopholes in Obama’s electoral campaign and a few of the strong points that this research should focus on. Not only does this article highlight the areas of concern, but it also gives directions for improving Obama’s chances of reelection: enhancing economic performance, approval ratings and the positioning of the opposition candidate from Republican Party.

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